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THE TICKER

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President Trump listens as Senate applicant Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), who is active for a U.S. Senate seat, speaks during a attack assemblage in Fargo, N.D., on June 27. (Evan Vucci/AP)

The approaching barter war and it’s tariffs on aggregate from soybeans to pork threatens to appear as a analytical affair in Senate battlefield contest the GOP needs to assure its majority this fall.  

For now, Republican challengers in a scattering of heartland states argue that Admiral Trump deserves allowance to accommodate in his bid to crop bigger deals for American businesses and consumers alike. But castigating tariffs that countries like Canada and China are aiming actually at Trump’s abject will analysis their adherence with the admiral in a actual aggressive midterm acclamation year.

Nowhere is the clasp amidst Trump and his barter behavior added axiomatic than in North Dakota, where Trump is aggravating to oust incumbent Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp. “We’re not starting a barter war, but we’ll accomplishment it,” Trump said aftermost anniversary at a assemblage in Fargo, as Heitkamp’s Republican challenger, Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), looked on. The abutting day, in a bounded television interview, Cramer said that “people are with [Trump] and they appetite a bigger deal.” And while Cramer said he’s told the admiral that farmers charge to see after-effects soon, the GOP lawmaker also predicted that “you’re activity to see some victories forth the way that will abide to accomplish this the appropriate thing.”

North Dakota farmers may see it differently. The Trump administering on Friday is set to bang addition $34 billion in duties on Chinese imports; Beijing says it will acknowledge in kind, leveling the aforementioned bulk in countervailing fees on U.S. appurtenances including soybeans, North Dakota’s top consign to the country. The accompaniment ships $28 actor account of the artefact to China annually, according to a abode out this anniversary from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce — and China consumes almost a third of American-produced soybeans, a actuality growers point to in adopting alarms about the tariffs.

Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.). (AP Photo/James MacPherson)

Heitkamp, who has accent her alertness to assignment with Trump, acutely criticizes the president’s trade offensive, calling it “poorly planned” and misguided. She argues Trump, who agitated her accompaniment by about 36 points, blown an befalling to accost China by additionally targeting friendlier trading partners. “With anniversary casual day, the administration’s barter behavior account added affair in North Dakota and rural America, abnormally area farming, ranching, manufacturing, and activity assembly ammunition the economy,” she said in a Facebook column on Tuesday. And she is co-sponsoring legislation to bind the president’s ascendancy to akin tariffs. 

“Democrats are emboldened and see tariffs as an befalling in red states,” says Inside Elections editor and administrator Nathan Gonzales. “It’s too aboriginal to apperceive it will comedy out. But if it after-effects in blow for farmers that’s acquainted by a above allotment of voters, I can see it actuality a attack issue.”

Republican challengers to added Senate Democratic incumbents in states bent in the assessment battery say Trump should get the account of the agnosticism as he presses his case — for now.

The admiral “got adopted in ample allotment because bodies apperceive that he’s a negotiator,” Leah Vukmir, a Wisconsin accompaniment agent allusive to booty on Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), said in a bounded account aftermost month. “I am accommodating to accord him the befalling to actualize fairer deals for our country.”

But Trump’s barter activity has fatigued criticism from added big Wisconsin players — including Gov.  Scott Walker (R), additionally up for reelection. Wisconsin-based Harley-Davidson appear aftermost anniversary it would abode some assembly abroad (drawing a Twitter lashing from Trump) in acknowledgment to new levies from the European Union, and added businesses in the state, from cheese makers to cranberry growers, angle to get pinched, too. 

Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-Mo.). (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

In Missouri, Attorney General Josh Hawley, Sen. Claire McCaskill’s (D) Republican competition, has said Trump is “on the appropriate track” and will buck agreement that absolve the disruptions. McCaskill’s attack angle trade, however, as an opening, criticizing Hawley for continuing by Trump as bounded businesses activate to buck the accountability of the barter hostilities. McCaskill has accent the plight of Mid Continent Attach Corp, a Poplar Bluff, Mo. attach architect that aftermost ages laid off 60 workers due to ascent metals prices. A Brookings Institute report alleged Missouri as the accompaniment that would ache the best from Trump’s animate and aluminum tariffs.

Those tariffs, and the blackmail of more, may already be putting a damper on accomplishment activity that had been accepting steam. “The Trump administration’s barter activity is starting to accept a apparent aftereffect on American manufacturers,” the Banking Times’s Ed Crooks writes. “Both the ISM and IHS surveys activate abounding manufacturers advertisement ascent costs and accretion difficulties in sourcing components. Timothy Fiore of the ISM said the comments appropriate respondents were ‘overwhelmingly concerned’ about the tariffs, and this was afore the majority of the appear or threatened measures had hit.”

Dialing up the burden on Republican candidates, the Koch political arrangement and other above accumulated interests adjoin to Trump’s barter advance are advancing off of the sidelines. Candidates “need to advance with adventuresomeness and confidence rather than comedy political games,” says James Davis, authoritative carnality admiral of the Koch-aligned Freedom Partners. “Trade barriers, such as tariffs, alone accomplish us poorer.”

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TRUMP TRACKER

TRADE FLY-AROUND:

President Trump at the White House on July 2. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

— China seeks to admit Europeans adjoin Trump. Reuters’s Robin Emmott and Noah Barkin: “China is putting burden on the European Union to affair a able collective account against… Trump’s barter behavior at a acme afterwards this ages but is adverse resistance, European admiral said. In affairs in Brussels, Berlin and Beijing, arch Chinese officials, including Carnality Premier Liu He and the Chinese government’s top diplomat, Accompaniment Councillor Wang Yi, accept proposed an accord amidst the two bread-and-butter admiral and offered to accessible added of the Chinese bazaar in a activity of goodwill. One angle has been for China and the European Union to barrage collective activity adjoin the United States at the World Barter Organization. But the European Union, the world’s better trading bloc, has alone the abstraction of allying with Beijing adjoin Washington.”

And says it won’t bang aboriginal this week. Reuters’s Stella Qiu and Ben Blanchard: “China will ‘absolutely not’ blaze the aboriginal attack in a barter war with the United States and will not be the aboriginal to burden tariffs, its accounts admiral said on Wednesday… ‘The Chinese government’s position has been declared abounding times. We actually will not blaze the aboriginal shot, and will not apparatus assessment measures avant-garde of the United States accomplishing so,’ it said, afterwards elaborating.”

But Beijing is already backbreaking U.S. businesses. The Washington Post’s Danielle Paquette: “Just canicule afore the aboriginal ­25 percent burden is slated to hit $34 billion in Chinese products, U.S. companies actuality say they’re already activity the bite in the anatomy of adjourned artefact approvals, artisan visas and licensing applications. In a country area adjustment administering can alter broadly by region, it’s adamantine for analysts to apperceive whether these abrupt authoritative headaches are a accompaniment or the Chinese government afterward through on threats to accomplish activity harder for Americans in business. But anecdotal affirmation suggesting official sanction is building, according to adept assemblage of the Chinese market. ‘There’s abundant of a trend to say this ability be related,’ said Jake Parker, carnality admiral of China operations at the U.S.-China Business Council.”

Republicans weigh ZTE battle with Trump. The Post’s Erica Werner and Josh Dawsey: “GOP senators, who accept about stood bottomward rather than claiming Trump alike aback they disagree, accept a window to booty action. But it will crave them not alone to deride their adenoids at a admiral who is berserk accepted with GOP voters but additionally to ability a accord with the afraid House. Abacus to that burden is new affirmation that ZTE may be acrimony the agreement of the accord — sparking alpha protests from assembly who will accept to adjudge in advancing weeks whether to bow to White House demands and aback bottomward on backbreaking the company.

“The White House on Monday took accurate accomplish to activate allowance ZTE. The Commerce Department issued a abandonment acceptance U.S. businesses to abide accomplishing business with ZTE for one ages afterwards amends as negotiations continue. That additionally could accord the White House added time to assignment out a resolution with associates of Congress.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivers a accent during a account agitation at the Bundestag in Berlin on July 4. (Markus Schreiber/AP)

— Merkel cautions adjoin ascent barter tensions. The Hill’s Max Greenwood: “German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Wednesday warned adjoin the looming bogeyman of a barter war with the United States amidst threats by . . . Trump to appoint abundant tariffs on auto imports from Europe. . . . ‘We now accept tariffs on aluminum and animate and we accept a altercation that is far added serious,’ Merkel said, pointing to Trump’s threats to bang tariffs on European auto exports to the U.S. ‘This has the appearance of a barter conflict,’ she continued. ‘I don’t appetite to use any added chat for now. It’s account every accomplishment to try to defuse this conflict, so it doesn’t about-face into a war. But this acutely takes two.’”

German carmakers accommodated with U.S. ambassador. Bloomberg News’s Oliver Sachgau, Jonathan Stearns and Christoph Rauwald: “German auto-industry leaders are authoritative the case to the Trump administering that a barter altercation with the U.S. will account irreparable blow to all-around business. The arch authoritative admiral of Volkswagen AG, Daimler AG and BMW AG met Wednesday with the U.S agent to Germany to altercate looming American duties on car imports from the European Union . . . Ambassador Richard Grenell told participants the U.S. government was gluttonous talks with the EU and German government with a angle to abate tariffs to zero, Handelsblatt appear later.”

As EU weighs car talks. “Brussels is because talks on a tariff-cutting accord amidst the world’s big car exporters to anticipate an all-out barter war with the US, say diplomats abreast on the initiative,” FT’s Jim Brundsen and Shawn Donnan write. “The abstraction is actuality advised by EU admiral avant-garde of a affair amidst Jean-Claude Juncker, admiral of the European Commission, and Admiral Donald Trump in Washington this month, amidst affair that time is active out to argue the US not to appoint castigating duties on the motor sector. Three diplomats said the European Commission was belief whether it would be achievable to accommodate a accord with added big car exporters such as the US, South Korea and Japan. Such a move could abode Mr Trump’s complaint that the US area is unfairly treated, while abbreviation consign costs for added accommodating countries’ auto sectors.”

— Pork producers brace. CNBC’s Jeff Daniels: “U.S. pork producers are about to be apathetic by a additional accumulation of ample castigating tariffs from China and Mexico — and that has some ample producers admiration they could lose big money and be affected to advance overseas. Admiral say the pork industry has been accretion in contempo years, in allotment on the apprehension of consign opportunities that would abide to abutment growth. However, the blackmail of a barter war is abacus ambiguity and active fear. One in 4 hogs aloft in the U.S. is awash overseas, and the Chinese are the world’s top consumers of pork.”

MELTDOWN WATCH:

President Trump greets supporters afterwards accession at the Greenbrier Valley Airport in Lewisburg, W.Va., afore accessory a “Salute to Service” banquet on Tuesday. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

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— How the Trump alms delving could acknowledge his tax returns. David Cay Johnston, in the NYT: “A accompaniment or canton bent analysis that begins with corruption of the Donald J. Trump Foundation charge not be bound to violations of alms and acclamation law. It can additionally appraise his claimed and business tax filings and, in the process, accurately put his tax allotment in the accessible record. Mr. Trump reportedly acclimated hundreds of bags of foundation dollars to achieve acknowledged cases and buy portraits of himself that adhere at Trump properties, amid added arrant examples of self-dealing. Those foundation expenditures were income, and unless Mr. Trump appear that income, he could be prosecuted for bent tax fraud.”

MARKET MOVERS

— Markets abiding avant-garde of tariffs. WSJ’s Georgi Kantchev: “Stocks in Europe and U.S. futures rebounded Thursday as investors looked above a looming borderline for tariffs amidst the U.S. and China to advantageous bread-and-butter abstracts and a abeyant de-escalation of some barter tensions. Futures acicular to aperture assets of 0.5% for the S&P 500. The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.7%. European car makers leapt up the basis afterwards a German columnist report that the U.S. proposed to stop aggressive to appoint tariffs on cars alien from the European Union if the EU lifts duties on U.S.- car imports.”

— Trump hits OPEC. The admiral alleged out the oil producers in a Wednesday tweet: 

“The account is one of several Mr. Trump has fabricated afresh in an attack to amplitude the bunch to access up production,” WSJ’s Neanda Salvaterra writes. “Oil prices accept risen 0.58% in the aftermost seven canicule due to accumulation outages in countries such as Venezuela, Libya and Canada. Still, analysts say that Mr. Trump should attending afterpiece to home for the acumen abaft the ascent amount of fuel. The U.S. move to reimpose sanctions on Iran, accompanying with alloyed letters on aback Washington expects countries to annihilate their purchases of Iranian oil, accept put a exceptional on crude. Analysts appraisal the U.S. sanctions would band about 2.5 actor barrels a day from the market.”

POCKET CHANGE

Shoppers outside a Walmart abundance in Rosemead, Calif., on Jan. 29, 2014. (Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images)

— A barrier armamentarium brilliant dims. WSJ’s Gregory Zuckerman: “For years, David Einhorn’s investors didn’t assume to apperception his abnormal ways—the absorption against clients, midday naps, abhorred banal picks, backward nights on the town. Until the billionaire hedge-fund administrator fell into a slump. Afterwards added than a decade of acceptable on Wall Street, Mr. Einhorn’s Greenlight Capital Inc. has diminished to about $5.5 billion in assets beneath management, his investors estimate, from a appear $12 billion in 2014, and his investments are struggling…

“Mr. Einhorn, 49, hasn’t acutely explained the losses, sometimes pointing to the market’s about-face abroad from the beneath big-ticket amount stocks he favors— those advised bargain about to balance and added metrics… People accustomed with the armamentarium aspect Mr. Einhorn’s troubles in allotment to his anarchistic ways—sticking to amount stocks, for example, and befitting audience at a distance—which he hasn’t afflicted alike as investors bolt.”

— Walmart faces the acrimony of Trump’s supporters. The Post’s Deanna Paul: “Walmart became the ambition of Trump supporters affronted by a T-shirt awash on the company’s website, arch to calls for a avoid Tuesday. The shirt, which was accessible in developed sizes and in babyish onesies, bore the words ‘Impeach 45,’ in advertence to Trump, the 45th admiral of the United States. It is cryptic how continued the shirts were accessible on Walmart’s website, but Ryan Fournier, a political analyst and administrator of Students for Trump, was amid the aboriginal to burn the amusing media aberration Monday night afterwards he apparent the listing, tweeting ‘what affectionate of bulletin are you aggravating to send?’ The shirt was not awash anon by Walmart but through its accessible exchange by a third-party seller, Walmart said in a cheep to Fournier Tuesday afternoon. ‘We’re removing these types of items awaiting analysis of our exchange policies,’ Walmart said.”

— HNA exec dies in France. NYT’s Alexandra Stevenson and Cao Li: “The co-chairman and co-founder of HNA Group, a Chinese amassed that spent heavily in contempo years to body a all-around contour but that has aback grappled with aerial debt, died from an adventitious abatement in France, the aggregation said on Wednesday. The afterlife of Wang Jian, a above civilian aerodynamics official who became one of China’s richest men, comes as the aggregation has been aggravating to acclimatized its debt of added than $90 billion. It could additionally casting added agnosticism on HNA’s black ownership, which has prompted some Wall Street banks to stop accomplishing business with it. Mr. Wang endemic a 15 percent pale of the company. Mr. Wang, 57, was on a business cruise to France, but had taken a detour on Tuesday to go sightseeing aback the abatement happened, according to HNA and the French police. The badge said they were alleviative his afterlife as an accident.”

— Barnes & Noble’s CEO is fired. WSJ’s Maria Armental and Jeffrey A. Trachtenberg: “Barnes & Noble Inc. . . . has accursed Arch Authoritative Demos Parneros, citation aggregation activity violations. The bookseller said Tuesday that Mr. Parneros won’t accept any severance pay and that he is no best a lath member. Barnes & Noble didn’t acknowledge what rules Mr. Parneros may accept violated, but said the accommodation wasn’t angry to any altercation over banking advertisement or any abeyant fraud.”

— Two pilots sued LaCroix arch executive. WSJ’s Jennifer Maloney and Mark Maremont: “Two pilots accept filed lawsuits alleging animal aggravation by the billionaire abaft LaCroix sparkling water, claiming 82-year-old Nick A. Caporella afield affected them on assorted trips while they were aerial with him in the cockpit of his business jet. The allegations by the above employees, both men, were fabricated in lawsuits filed in the accomplished two years in Florida and name both the arch authoritative and National Beverage Corp. . . . as defendants. Mr. Caporella is the chairman, arch authoritative and authoritative actor of National Beverage, which has a bazaar amount of $5 billion, acknowledgment to surging LaCroix sales.”

— A abode highlights the shortcomings of the U.S. activity market. The Post’s Andrew Van Dam: “The U.S. activity bazaar is hot. Unemployment is at 3.8 percent, a akin it’s hit alone already aback the 1960s, and abounding industries abode abysmal activity shortages. Old theories of what’s amiss with the activity bazaar — such as a abridgement of bodies with all-important abilities — are dying fast. Balance are alpha to aces up, and the Federal Reserve envisions a abiding dieting of amount hikes. So why does a ample subset of workers abide to feel larboard behind? We can acquisition some clues in a new 296-page abode from the Organization for Bread-and-butter Cooperation and Development (OECD), a club of avant-garde and advancing nations that has continued been a top antecedent for all-embracing bread-and-butter abstracts and research. Best of the abstracts are from 2016 or before, but they reflect basal appearance of the economies analyzed that abide today. In particular, the abode shows the United States’s unemployed and at-risk workers are accepting actual little abutment from the government, and their active aeon are set aback by a decidedly anemic collective-bargaining system.”

— Tech firms advance in Cambridge: NYT’s Cade Metz and Adam Satariano: “For years, journalists, burghal planners and added government admiral accept alleged this ‘Silicon Fen,’ envisioning the already asleep outskirts of Cambridge as Britain’s acknowledgment to Silicon Valley. The name — a nod to the littoral plain, or Fenlands, that surrounds Cambridge — never absolutely stuck. But the abstraction absolutely did, so abundant so that the world’s tech admiral accept confused in, snapping up engineers and researchers, decidedly in the beginning acreage of bogus intelligence. Their accession provides a acceptable bang for the British abridgement that’s accepted to be aching by its abandonment from the European Union. Apple, Amazon and Google accustomed analysis and engineering hubs in Britain by accepting companies that emerged from bounded universities, spending millions or alike hundreds of millions of dollars.”

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MONEY ON THE HILL

THE REGULATORS

Facebook arch executive Mark Zuckerberg at a Senate hearing in Washington on April 10. (Matt McClain/The Washington Post)

— What Facebook can apprehend from the SEC probe. The Post’s Renae Merle and Elizabeth Dwoskin: “A Balance and Exchange Commission analysis into Facebook’s administration of abstracts with political consultancy Cambridge Analytica could put every accessible announcement on the affair by aggregation executives, including arch authoritative Mark Zuckerberg, beneath abutting examination, balance law experts say. The SEC is acceptable to appraise whether the aggregation and its admiral absolutely appear to shareholders the risks airish by its accord with Cambridge Analytica, the experts said. That would accommodate reviewing years of abstracts Facebook has submitted to the SEC anecdotic its banking altitude and the business risks it faced. It would additionally accommodate any accessible statements its admiral accept fabricated to the media or Congress, they said.”

CHART TOPPER

From Bloomberg News:

DAYBOOK

Coming soon

THE FUNNIES

A New Yorker animation by Kim Warp:

BULL SESSION

Trump pays accolade to the Armed Forces for the Fourth of July:

Trapped Thai soccer aggregation receives dive lessons:

NBA chargeless agency, surprises and upsets:

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